On Monday, Iowa Republicans will be the first Americans to vote for a presidential nominee. They’ll be doing it with a caucus, which is a time-consuming, controversial way of voting that went so poorly for Democrats recently they dropped it altogether this year.
Republicans will continue to caucus, despite growing criticism about its downsides. Here’s how a caucus works, why it’s first in the nation for Republicans, and the case for and against keeping it that way.
A caucus is more of a grassroots party gathering than a traditional election
There are no polling places. Party activists host gatherings in local gyms or churches or even people’s living rooms. Then representatives for the presidential campaigns speak. People write down who they want to vote for on blank pieces of paper. Volunteers count votes and report them up the chain. (Iowa Democrats used to have people gather in groups around the room to vote, but Republicans have always written out their choices in a secret ballot.)
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The voting is technically called a presidential preference poll.
“It is not an election run by the secretary of state,” said Nicole Schlinger, a Republican political strategist in Iowa. “It is run by the party and effectively executed by volunteers in every precinct across the state.” (There are some 1,600 precincts.)
How Iowa cemented its iconic status as first in the nation
In the late 1960s, the country was badly polarized. Iowa’s slow, methodical caucus process suddenly looked like an enticing way for Democratic Party leaders to calm nerves and pick a presidential candidate, Schlinger said.
Shortly after that, Iowa Democrats had a run of helping pick candidates that ultimately won the nomination or even presidency (like Jimmy Carter). Its status as first in the nation became legendary, and it’s been first in every presidential contest since 1972.
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“I think it served our country well then,” Schlinger said, “and it was created for a time very similar to this one.”
What are the downsides to a caucus?
It’s hard to attend if you work or go to school in the evenings, or if you have kids or even pets. The caucus is held at 7 p.m. on a weeknight in the dead of winter — it’s forecast to be as cold as minus-8 degrees on caucus night. And it takes hours. You can’t just show up, cast your vote and leave. (Though this year the caucus will be held on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a federal holiday.)
Even some Iowans who follow politics closely don’t bother to show up to caucus, said Craig Robinson, the former political director of Iowa’s Republican Party. He framed it almost as a hobby for hardcore political activists.
“I love the idea of it,” Robinson said. “I think it’s so romantic. But I don’t think the caucuses are the best ways to vote these days.”
Why Iowa Democrats have ditched their presidential primary caucus
For the first time since the 1970s, Democrats won’t join Republicans in voting in January, or in voting by caucus. In Democrats’ 2020 presidential primary, the process broke down so badly that it never produced a clear winner. Plus, Joe Biden came in fourth there. National Democrats have also had growing concerns about Iowa’s lack of demographic diversity, so they ejected it as the first state to vote for a presidential nominee. And Iowa Democrats scrapped the caucus process altogether. This year they will vote for a nominee by mailing in a ballot and they will announce their results in March. (They’ll still technically hold caucuses on Monday, but only for the purpose of conducting administrative party business.)
Iowans argue a caucus still works to winnow the field
So the caucus is anachronistic, but Iowans give lots of reasons for why it should still exist — and why it should be first in the nation.
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The grass-roots nature of a caucus can lift smaller candidates with a passionate following, though Iowa has struggled in recent presidential cycles to pick the winner. But sometimes the caucus gives candidates fire with an unexpected win supported by grass-roots party activists. “This is a state that chose Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton,” Schlinger said.
The fact Iowa is a smaller state lets voters drive the political conversation, rather than paid media ads in bigger states with more traditional primaries. “You’ve got to start the process somewhere, and if you go to these bigger states, you can’t have these one-on-one conversations with candidates to vet them,” said Steve Scheffler with the conservative Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition.
On caucus night, the campaigns need to be so connected with Iowans that they provide a representative in one of each of the nearly 1,600 precincts to argue for them before voters make their choice.
How to interpret the results of Republicans’ Iowa caucuses
Be patient. This is an event put on by volunteers, and it could take hours or more for results to come in — especially if the race is close.
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Donald Trump is expected to win, even though he’ll spend much of this week going back and forth between several different courtrooms for various cases. But even though he’s leading his opponents by nearly 50 percentage points nationally, don’t expect Trump to get 50 percent of the vote in Iowa. That’s because Robinson thinks many of his supporters are exactly the kind of people who don’t make it out to caucus.
In many ways, the race for second place is more exciting. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis needs to come in very close to Trump to have a path forward in the presidential race, many Republicans say. Especially since he has the endorsement of Iowa’ governor.
Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has less pressure to perform, because everyone is watching how she’ll do compared to Trump in the next state, New Hampshire. So she would get some major momentum if she came in second, and that could effectively end DeSantis’s campaign.
Can the Iowa caucuses survive much longer?
It’s a fair question, given Democrats have basically rejected theirs, and former Republican Party leaders like Robison are questioning the caucus’s place in modern times.
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But even Robinson sees some benefits to having a small state with a weird voting system go first in the presidential primary.
“When do candidates make mistakes?” he asked. “They make a mistake when someone asks them a simple question and they flub it. So I think having regular people interact with these presidential candidates is crucial, and I think the only place you really get that is in Iowa and New Hampshire.”
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